Carl Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar is an insightful concept that provides essential perspective for the development of the universe. The universe itself is apparently organic, and as a natural entity it seemingly evolves over time. By packing roughly 14 billion years of existence into a relative calendar of one Earthly year, Sagan enables people to grasp something as boundless as the evolution of the universe on a tangible and relatable scale. What is possibly most impactful about the Cosmic Calendar perspective is the notion that humans arrived on Earth as recently as December 30th. So, if one year represents the entire existence of our universe, all that humans have known and accomplished occurred in a period of about two days. If it took the Milky Way Galaxy four months to form, another three months for our solar system to form, and one day to go from the extinction of dinosaurs to the beginning of the human age, it seems like the universe exponentially evolves.
In his 2005 book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil presents an alternative model of the Cosmic Calendar that consists of 6 Epochs, arranged according to the evolution of information:
Epoch 1 – Physics and chemistry (information in atomic structures)
Epoch 2 – Biology (information in DNA)
Epoch 3 – Brains (information in neural patterns)
Epoch 4 – Technology (information in hardware and software designs)
Epoch 5 – Integrated Technology and Human Intelligence (human biology integrated with human technology)
Epoch 6 – Universal Awakening (patterns of matter and energy in the universe)
Kurzweil theorizes that we are entering Epoch 5 and approaching what he calls a “technological singularity,” the point when non-biological intelligence matches the power and subtle capabilities of the brain. Kurzweil’s work is supported by Moore’s Law (Figure above), which shows the exponential growth of complexity for semiconductor circuits (computer chips). According to current mathematical models, some believe a technological singularity will happen by 2045. The potential for integrating technology into biological systems was born in science fiction and is slowly becoming a reality. In fact, professor Kevin Warwick in England is a cybernetics professor and pioneer. In his book, I Cyborg, you can read about his experiments with cybernetic technology in his own body. Although these ideas are outlandish and almost uncomfortable to think about, it is becoming necessary to consider technology as a factor in our cosmic evolution. In a few decades, it may even be that December 31st on the Cosmic Calendar represents a new age of bio-technological humans.
Interesting blog.
What do you think of the idea that fundamental limitations of semiconductor chips are going to prevent or delay the singularity? That we may be reaching the limits of our technology? Might we run into a limit to human creativity and ability to create new technology?
I think it is difficult to say that limitations in technology are so clear cut, just as it is difficult to precisely predict technology’s progress. The fundamental limitations of semiconductor chips will be overcome by new developments in material and processing technology, such as nanotechnology. We are relatively on the cusp of developing, manufacturing and using nano-materials at feasible costs, but it is still an underdeveloped technology that will take time to master. So as of yet, I do not think we are reaching the limits of our technology. We are constantly reinventing the materials and models we use for our technology — it is constantly upgrading, changing and integrating into new forms. Although at times technological progress does go stale, I think human creativity is a boundless talent that constantly works to change our world and its technologies.